MFF BY THE NUMBERS: The European Commission is today set to propose an overall EU budget of €1.135 trillion in commitments (in 2018 prices) over seven years — that’s 1.11 percent of the EU27’s gross national income (GNI). Expressed in current prices (taking into account inflation), this would amount to €1.279 trillion. That translates to actual payments (which are a good way to reflect expenditure as in national budgets) of €1.105 trillion (in 2018 prices, or 1.08 percent of GNI) over the whole period starting in 2021. Stay with us, this is important.

LOOK FOR YOURSELF: Here are the numbers, obtained by Playbook, and subject to approval by commissioners today. We’ll break it down below. The two-line summary if you want to skip past the heavy stuff contained under the next two red headings: Those who wanted an increased EU budget will find one. But the Commission will still argue that those who sought a smaller budget for a smaller EU can’t be that unhappy, as everyone’s red lines were respected, according to an EU source.

LOOK WHO’S COMING TO PARLIAMENT: After this morning’s College meeting, Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker plans to present the Multiannual Financial Framework to the European Parliament at around 1 p.m., officials told Playbook. We know Juncker likes a good turnout, but we hope he’s not holding his breath for a full house. MEPs could be caught by surprise that the Commission chief wants to talk to them — he’s not yet listed on the agenda of the mini plenary in Brussels.

Parliament first — and only? A Juncker appearance in the Berlaymont’s press room is not yet confirmed.

TODAY’S 6 BIG QUESTIONS, ANSWERED

1. Will they punish the innocent? The Commission will today propose a mechanism to link payments from the EU budget to respect for the rule of law in a country. But it will seek to ensure governments won’t just stop funding projects and blame Brussels, EU sources told Playbook, by specifying that individual recipients cannot be held responsible for deficiencies in the rule of law system of a country. Hence governments “would continue to be obliged to make payments to Erasmus students,” universities, NGOs or any other final recipients of EU money.

2. Who’s to decide about fines? Remember — from Tuesday — the key words on the rule of law mechanism is proper use of taxpayers’ money, not values. A funding cut would apply when there’s a “generalized deficiency” to the rule of law, or to “sound financial management” of EU money. Who decides if there is a problem? The Commission would propose and Council adopt any funding freezing through reversed qualified majority voting, according to an EU source familiar with the outcome of Monday’s meeting of heads of Cabinets. That means that fines are approved by ministers unless a qualified majority overturns the decision.

Nerd note: That follows the fines and sanctions mechanisms of the EU’s economic governance rules — and a country has never been severely penalized.

Broader story: POLITICO’s Lili Bayer and Andrew Gray on the plans to link EU payouts to the rule of law.

Unanswered question: Why is one of the (seven) budget headings titled “Cohesion and Values” if values aren’t a factor here?

3. Is cohesion money going to be shifted from east to south? The “fine-tuning” is still to be done here, an EU source said. But, according to another EU source, the basic principle will remain as is and the relative per capita income of a country will remain the main criterion for the allocation of funds. In EU-speak that means that the “Berlin method” (adopted under the German presidency in 1999) will be maintained — while the actual weight of unemployment and other factors on allocation might change.

4. Will rebates stay or go? Simple answer, from one of our sources: U.K. rebates go when the U.K. does, but independent rebates don’t automatically go. The Commission will propose phasing them out in five steps and leave the rest to the next Multiannual Financial Framework, from 2028. Another source added that the College will discuss whether and how it is willing to take into account the fact that some countries — the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany — will face a sharp increase of their contributions due to abolished rebates. “This requires a political discussion and decision,” we’re told.

5. Is less more? Under the proposal, funding will largely stay the same for infrastructure, transport and space policy. The big pots for cohesion and agriculture will face cuts “of between 5 and 7 percent” (read: 6), bringing overall volume of both funds down to a combined 60 percent or so of the MFF.

6. Who are the big winners?

— Research programs will get an increase of around 40 percent, one EU source said. Erasmus+ funding will be doubled, as it’s the “best answer to populism and anti-European voices.”

— An even better answer to the above voices, in the eyes of many politicians: The proposal foresees that the EU’s coast and border guard will be several times the size of its current staff, increasing to 10,000 from 1,200, EU sources told Playbook. The budget provides €35 billion for border management, asylum and migration, as compared to €13 billion over the current MFF.

— Foreshadowed is a program called InvestEU that would provide roughly €15 billion in guarantees on an investment program modeled after the Juncker investment plan, a.k.a. the European Fund for Strategic Investments.

INCONVENIENT NUMBERS

Everything is connected, as we know, and the fight about the MFF is tied to the EU’s migration policy. In a Playbook exclusive with many thanks to our own Jacopo Barigazzi, we present you with this case study of numbers that don’t fit.

In a letter sent to Migration Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos in March, obtained by Playbook, Dutch Migration Minister Mark Harbers wants to know how it’s possible that the number of unregistered migrants crossing into the Netherlands is so high, “even though more than 95 percent of irregular migrants and asylum seekers arrive from other Schengen states.” He writes: “Only one third has been registered previously. This means about two thirds still manage to enter and travel through other member states undetected and unregistered.”

That’s uncomfortable for Avrampopulos. The Commission has long argued that registration works just fine across the Continent. It reckoned last year that “the registration and fingerprinting of migrants arriving in Greece and Italy has now reached a rate of almost 100 percent.”

Harbers is too polite to say that either Italy and Greece’s (or his own) numbers must be wrong. He instead implies that not all countries take their registration duties seriously enough to counter “asylum seekers who consciously refuse to apply for protection in the member state of first arrival.” Harbers writes that “giving asylum seekers this de facto choice of which member state they want to settle in, is in itself a pull factor” — and asks the Commission to “guard the implementation of the migration acquis assertively” in the future.

Harbers makes it clear that the Netherlands wants stricter conditionality in the MFF, writing that “free-riding should have a price: Member states refusing to demonstrate solidarity, in violation of their EU obligations, should be penalized through cuts in EU subsidies.”

TRADE STUFF

RISK OF SPLIT OVER TRUMP: Germany’s government called for talks to avoid an escalation of the trade conflict with U.S. President Donald Trump and said in a statement that “both the U.S. and the EU would profit from further deepening our trade ties.” Berlin’s tone is considerably softer than that of the Commission, which warned that the EU “will not negotiate under threat” and didn’t appear to be especially keen to pull off a TTIP-light within a few weeks.

That’s something German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier pushed on Tuesday, saying that he has “always expressed the hope that we can reduce customs barriers worldwide” and that it “should also be possible with the United States, within the framework of a fair agreement.” The French government warned against division over the issue.

Call to order from Parliament: “Trade policy is a European competence. Thus we are surprised to see Macron and Merkel negotiating in America while the European Commission is publicly surprisingly silent,” Green MEPs Yannick Jadot and Sven Giegold wrote on Tuesday in a letter to Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström. “We are not aware of any official mandate by the member states for these talks. Even less such a mandate for discussing TTIP light was ever discussed with the European Parliament.”

IN OTHER NEWS

EMMANUEL MACRON’S COALITION OF THE WILLING: Frustrated by the EU’s low-ambition Permanent Structured Cooperation in defense agreed last year, the French president is pressing ahead with a small core of like-minded nations outside EU and NATO institutional structures, reports POLITICO’s Paul Taylor.

TWO MINISTERS LEAVE DANISH CABINET: Education Minister Søren Pind and Environment Minister Esben Lunde Larsen stepped down from Danish Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen’s Cabinet in a reshuffle ahead of a general election due by June next year. New ministers are due to be announced today.

BREXIT — UK CUSTOMS DAY: British PM Theresa May will today convene her inner war Cabinet to try to finalize a deal on customs. Jack Blanchard has a full rundown of what will happen in his London Playbook, in your inbox at 8 a.m.

REALITY TEST: A sit-in protest in the lobby of Poland’s parliament of half a dozen mothers and their disabled children enters its third week today, POLITICO’s man in Warsaw Michał Broniatowski wrote in to report. The women, who are unable to work because they must care for their children full time, want their benefits increased to the equivalent of €100 from the current €25. President Andrzej Duda visited them to express his support, but Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki met them and said their demands could not be met. Michał tells us it’s a reality check for a government that has taken pride in solving the problems of the impoverished masses.

ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT BLOCKS OPPOSITION LEADER FROM TOP JOB.

MUELLER LEAVING IVANKA FOR LAST: Ivanka Trump, the family member closest to the president, has yet to be called in for questioning by special counsel Robert Mueller, writes POLITICO’s Annie Karnie. Former White House aides who themselves have sat down with prosecutors for daylong grillings are wondering why.

LE PERSONNEL

FOLLOWING UP ON EUROPE’S NEW TOP COP: POLITICO’s Giulia Paravicini has a profile of Catherine De Bolle, the new Europol chief and the first woman to ever have that job. “Citing her track record in Belgium, officials at Europol and several European security and intelligence services raised concerns about her ability to coordinate the Continent’s counterterrorism efforts,” Giulia writes.