Thursday, May 10, 2018

RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT

THIRD ITALIAN REPUBLIC? The thing is, the second Republic (coined by Berlusconi) won’t just go away at no cost. The 5Stars can’t govern with Berlusconi without losing credibility with their electorate. The League swore eternal allegiance and would need Berlusconi to step aside and support a possible government from outside. That’s what he has now vowed to do — lend his support to bills in line with his program.

Translation: He basically gave a green light to a League-5Star government, though he insisted that “doesn’t mark the end of the center-right alliance.” But this is Italian politics, and everything comes at a price. The M5S will have to pay it in the form of guarantees (such an Italian concept) that any new government would respect Berlusconi’s (business) interests. Watch what Mediaset’s share price does this morning to assess the chances of that maybe-government actually eventuating.

Timeline: Mattarella is set to speak to a Florence audience at a State of the Union conference this morning. At this point, he can’t do much more than reassure the public that Italy’s going to stay a constructive member of the European Union. Those 24 hours expire later today, and perhaps they’ll become 48 as that damning question of who’ll be prime minister is still unresolved.

If successfully resolved, Italy will “become the first European country led by populist forces with a strong anti-European rhetoric,” La Stampa writes.

EU REFORMS, ANYONE? Decorated with white flowers, “as if Macron and Merkel were to marry,” Aachen’s town hall will be the stage for today’s conferral of the Charlemagne prize to French President Emmanuel Macron, ZDF’s Anne Gellinek observed on the ground. Angela Merkel will deliver a speech. The Germans are giving Macron a prize, to be sure, but he’ll likely be wondering whether the chancellor has anything else to give to him. Pierre Briançon writes about Macron’s consolation prize.

IRAN FALLOUT

IRAN VS. ISRAEL: Iranian forces in Syria shelled Israeli army outposts in the country overnight, Israel said. Israel responded with one of the heaviest strikes in Syria since its civil war began in 2011. Reuters has the full details.

TOP TIP FOR DICTATORS: The irony in U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal is that it has highlighted the fact that it’s a wiser choice for his foes to possess nuclear weapons than to agree to a deal and forego their development. Exhibit A: North Korea’s Kim Jong Un gets a meeting, while Iran gets the boot.

But then, if you look at Trump’s speech again, there’s no mention of Iran violating the deal (perhaps because it isn’t, as the rest of the West minus Israel says). Now what does that tell you about American trustworthiness if you were, say, Kim, and mulling a de-nuclearization deal? “The U.S. now looks like it doesn’t keep its word,” observes David Patrikarakos (whose book on Iran’s nuclear ambitions is a few years old but still worth reading).

Back to Europe’s reactions. What can they do?

1. If you can’t go after Trump, go after Tesla: Merkel repeated the line she had agreed on with Macron and U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May the night before: “We will remain committed to this agreement and will do our utmost to ensure that Iran also honors its commitments,” she told reporters in Berlin. She was then quick to move on to a call for strategic independence from America on matters both of security and … batteries: “We will need a big European initiative” to build up production capacities for battery cells for electric cars, she said, and urged that “time is really pressing.”

2. Avoid the issue: Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker appeared before the Flemish parliament on Wednesday afternoon for a debate and managed to avoid the Iran issue despite speaking (in French) for almost an hour (on the theme of “Vive la Flandre!”). He later responded to questions from the chamber and said it’s up to governments and the EU’s foreign policy representative Federica Mogherini to talk about the affair, but, to be sure: “The crisis is already here.” He said the U.S. decision to withdraw was “useless and shouldn’t have been taken the way it was taken.”

3. Go to the archives: There’s one precedent. In 1996, the EU established that American sanctions against European companies doing business with Cuba, Libya and Iran shall not “be recognized or be enforceable in any manner” and that “no person … shall comply, whether directly or through a subsidiary or other intermediary person, actively or by deliberate omission, with any requirement or prohibition, including requests of foreign courts.” David Herszenhorn spells out the union’s options.

MORE

‘PSYCHOLOGICAL VIOLENCE’ AT EU ASYLUM AGENCY: The EU’s fraud agency OLAF is investigating allegations of staff harassment, a “culture of irresponsibility” and the use of “psychological violence” as a management tool at the EU’s Malta-based European Asylum Support Office, reports Jacopo Barigazzi.

EU COUNTRIES AGREE ON TRADE DEAL FAST TRACK: EU ambassadors on Tuesday approved Commission plans to separate investment protection from trade deals so that they can be approved faster, without granting national (think Flemish and Walloon) parliaments a direct veto. In return, national parliaments and civil society must “be kept duly informed,” and Brussels must obtain “to the greatest extent possible” a consensus that reflects all member countries’ interests. The application of the fast-track will be decided “on a case-by-case basis” — Latin American trade partners, for example, won’t get it. More for POLITICO Trade Pros by Hans von der Burchard.

BREXIT GLOOM: In the space of 24 hours, U.K. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has openly challenged the prime minister over her preferred post-Brexit customs plan, and the House of Lords has sent another wrecking ball through the government’s negotiating aims. That one-two punch has even the most upbeat of U.K. officials involved in the Brexit negotiations gloomy, reports Tom McTague. In the words of one high-ranking official: “God help us all!”

AFTER ARMENIA, MALAYSIA: In an incredible election upset, a Malaysian opposition coalition led by the 92-year-old former PM Mahathir Mohamad won a majority in a national parliamentary election. The country has been governed by one party for decades. More from the New York Times. The conventional wisdom is short on democracy, but Armenia and Malaysia show it has some life left in it yet.

NORTH KOREA PRISONER RELEASE: Three Americans released by North Korea on Wednesday thanked U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo for securing their freedom. More from the BBC.